A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
