Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
